India's crude oil production rose barely 1% in 2011-12 over the previous year to 7,63,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, India's energy needs are exploding. The mismatch between domestic crude production and imports has had three disastrous consequences.
One, our import bill for 2011-12 has shot up to $475 billion. Of this, nearly a third, or $150 billion, comprises crude oil imports. Two, the trade deficit has bloated to $175 billion. Oil imports now comprise a gargantuan 85% of the country's total trade deficit.
Three, for the first time since the Lehman crisis in September 2008, India's balance of payments in 2011-12 has turned negative. This is despite robust FII inflows: a record $9.50 billion-plus in the January-March 2012 quarter, the highest since 1993 when FIIs were allowed to invest in the Indian stock market.
The minister for petroleum and natural gas, S Jaipal Reddy, who took charge in January 2011, has a lot of policy debris of the past to clear up. India's domestic oil production slowed on the watch of Murli Deora who held the portfolio between 2006 and 2011. Reddy has begun shaking up the old order. Domestic crude production is slated to rise by 11% in 2012-13 and a further 8% in 2013-14 to reach just under one million barrels per day (bbd).
India's total crude oil requirement in 2013-14 is expected to rise to well over four million bbd. Crude imports, however, should fall from the current level of 80% of total consumption to 75% if new oilfields prospected by Cairn and ONGC deliver on their promise by 2014.
The long-term target must be to bring the ratio of imported crude to total consumption down to the historical level, last seen in the 1980s and early-1990s, of around 65%.
This requires three policy changes. First, reduce bureaucratic delays. Cairn, for example, has been waiting for nearly two years to ramp up production in its Mangala oilfield. Second, encourage more joint ventures in exploring foreign oil and gasfields. ONGC Videsh's Russian investments in Sakhalin-I and Videocon's fields in Mozambique, Brazil, East Timor and Australia should encourage Reliance Industries (RIL), Essar, Adani and other private sector exploration companies to expand their global footprint.
Third, pursue the new shale gas strategy that the Prime Minister outlined last month. By end-2013, shale gas exploration bids in six Indian regions (Cambay, Assam-Arakan, Gondawana, KG onshore, Cauvery onshore and Indo-Gangetic basins) could reveal long-term potential.
Despite environmental concerns over deep-rock fracking and the cost of technology, shale gas is already boosting America's domestic energy production and reducing its historical reliance on oil imports.
RIL's discoveries in the Krishna Godavari (KG) basin at the turn of the century promised much but that promise, a decade later, remains unfulfilled. Natural gas production from the KG-D6 fieldwas estimated to yield 80 million standard cu m per day (mmscmd). It is currentlyproducing less than 28 mmscmd, causing a huge crisis for sponge iron plants across the country. Also hit are power projects whose gas-fired plants are working at less than 50% capacity.
The government is locked in a dispute with RIL over a host of issues relating to gas pricing and approval of new investment in infrastructure to drill more wells in the contiguity of KG-D6. RIL last month finally secured government approval to explore four satellite fields in KG-D6 at an investment of $1.53 billion. This could provide an additional 10 mmscmd of natural gas. British Petroleum ( BP), which last year invested $7.2 billion to acquire a 30% stake from RIL in 21 oil and gas blocks, has best-in-class expertise in new deep-sea drilling technology.
This will play an increasingly-important role in KG-D6's future development. It is significant, however, that BP's statutory filings in London indicate that proven reserves in the KG-D6 field are 1.4 trillion cu ft - a mere tenth of RIL's own estimates.
The issue though is bigger than one or two private companies. India's oil and gas exploration policy has been caught in red tape for over a decade. With Reddy at the helm of the petroleum and natural gas ministry, will things really change? The minister must set ambitious targets. Indian crude oil demand, despite the growth of renewable and alternative energy sources, will rise at least 60% from the current 3.7 million bbd to around six million bbd in 2021-22.
Assuming domestic crude production doubles in the eight years between 2013-14 and 2021-22 to two million bbd at a CAGR of 9%, India will still need to import four million bbd. However, the dependence on foreign crude would fall from 80% currently to around 67% - a realistic target that will constitute a significant advance in combating our long-term trade and current account deficits.
If the price of crude roughly doubles in a decade to around $230 per barrel, a reasonable estimate based on both economic and geopolitical factors, the annual cost of India's targeted crude oil imports of four million bbd would rise from $150 billion today to $335 billion in 2021-22. Indian exports, currently $300 billion, are expected to grow at a CAGR of 12-15% a year. Taking the lower growth figure in that range (12%), our exports should be $800 billion by 2021-22, bringing the oil import-to-total exports ratio ($335 billion/$800 billion) down from today's inflationary level of over 50% to a more sustainable 41%. The positive spin-offs on the rest of India's economy will be significant.
Source:The Economic Times
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 27 April 2012 lowered India’s growth projection to 6.9 per cent for 2012. The multilateral agency in January projected Indian economy to grow to by 7 per cent for 2012. The slashed growth projection is broadly attributed to the country’s poor performance on the front of economic reforms and slowing investment.
The IMF, however, maintained India’s growth estimate for 2013 at 7.3 per cent. As per the IMF, the national economy grew by 7.1 per cent last year.
